Overview of the Pepper Market - Bearish and Bullish signs

We are at a critical phase. Read the entire story to get an over all picture.


Bearish signs :
1. Globally most destinations are covered. USA has bought  much more than their average annual demand.
2. Middle east is pharting with pepper and want to sell back to Vietnam.
3. Brazil could not sell as Indonesia robbed them of their sales by reducing prices. Brazilians kept sending videos of decimated trees etc. Weather data does not show such a bad situation. There is an issue no doubt but it was perhaps blown out out of proportion.
4. New Crop 2025 will be better on yield from the perspective thar farmers got more money and they will spend well on farm inputs.


Bullish signs:
1. China has started sniffing in Upcountry Vietnam. Fearing weakening currency they may import ahead of time. Note they are uncovered and pipe line seems to be empty. They will come with a vengeance whenever they do.
2. Area globally is shrinking.
3. Climate change is a reality. Still raining in Vietnam coffee and pepper regions. Coffee crop is delayed and we can say with confidence pepper crop will also be a delayed crop. Usually delayed crops are short crops.
4. Coffee prices continue to rise and this will impact pepper as we have shown earlier that rising coffee can push pepper prices also up.


We have started visiting growing regions and will bring you more updates on the Vietnam crop.

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